A Look At the Polls

With twelve days left to go until election day, I still have some remaining doubts about a Democratic victory. While there are days when I am confident that it is entirely possible and will indeed happen, I see the outrageously negative campaigning that the Republican party has been engaging in and the utterly vile, slanderous pamphlet that they produced today. One can only wonder what will really go through the minds of each voter as they get into the privacy of the voting booth.

All we have to rely on are the polls. Here's the New York Times/CBS News Poll depicting changes in opinion over the past one month. Opinion towards the Democratic candidates have become more positive while opinion towards the Republican candidates have become more negative. Notice the data for Sarah Palin especially. There's not even a single subgroup that has stayed the same or felt more positively towards her. Even the Republicans polled there are more negative towards her and towards McCain too. So that's the overall standing. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead overall as of today, and Gallup shows him having a 5-point lead.

What about Independent voters? (Not to be confused with undecided voters who are... undecided). According to today's Diageo/Hotline Poll, Obama has an 7-point lead over McCain (43% - 36%) when it comes to the Independent-likely voters. He did, however, have an 11-point lead 3 days ago with the Independents. Not sure what's happening there. Perhaps they've received a pamphlet or two. It's worth paying attention to what the Independents do because as you may remember in the too-close-to-call 2000 elections where George W. Bush was judged to be the winner by a Supreme Court decision, it was claimed that Ralph Nader took away votes from Al Gore by having inserted himself in the presidential race. Had Nader not been in the running, those voters would have more likely voted for Gore than for Bush, and that would have made all the difference.

Some good news from Gallup polls: the majority of first-time voters say that they plan to vote for Obama (65% for him, 30% for McCain). Most of these first-time voters are between the ages of 18-25 (62%, in fact). Unfortunately, it's not clear just how many of them will actually get over to the polls that day to cast a ballot. Figuring out where your polling place is, finding a way to get over there, standing in line for possibly an hour or more, and then deciphering that complicated ballot takes a little bit more than it does joining five different pro-Obama Facebook groups (and, for effect, 3 different anti-Palin groups) or even attending a rally. Hey, if you don't vote, you forfeit the right to complain for the next four years!