The current Gallup Polls show Senator McCain with a 5-point lead over Senator Obama in the presidential race. I only discovered the Gallup polls website yesterday and have been quite enamored with how they present all sorts of breakdowns such as Candidate Support by Age, Candidate Support by Gender, Candidate Support by Education, and a whole bunch of other interesting variables.
So why the 5% lead? Post-convention "bounce?" In trying to understand this, I found a very good election analysis website, the Princeton Election Consortium. Apparently Gallup polls aren't the be-all and end-all of polls (the reason for this has to do with using median-based statistics which, according to PEC, anyone who attended 7th grade in Canada should be able to explain to you). The Princeton Election Consortium did an analysis today of five different polling sources and found that McCain and Obama are neck and neck as of today. If you like statistics, PEC's website will be a total love fest for you.
The bigger question is, why are they neck and neck?? One candidate may be leading over the other in the case of certain demographics, but overall, they've been neck and neck for a while now. If anyone has any insights, please click on 'comments' below and share them.
Time to say goodbye
15 years ago
2 comments:
Maybe because there are many undecided? Maybe some people actually like the idea of Palin as VP - heaven forbid!!
God bless America!
PS - didnt realise that you didn't know who I was!
LOL
PS2 - not that we are any better off here - in terms of politics and politicians I mean!
Yes, some people like Palin, but the closeness of the race between Obama and McCain goes back to early August or so. I don't get it. The Republican party was splintered and I thought most of them didn't like McCain. Perhaps when it came down to it, they would have rather had him than Obama. No one's really talking much about the race issue, but I do think that race is playing into this. Hard to gauge that sitting in Hyde Park. I'll be going to Indiana to volunteer for the campaign next week so it'll be interesting to see what's playing there.
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